Lesson 20: Uncertainty
A project, as is most of life, is surrounded by uncertainty – risks. These risks can be specific, as in a hurricane, or more generic as in labor productivity. You should develop a plan(s) to deal with the risk, should the risk occur.
Caution: You are far better off having a plan than trying to develop one under the stress attendant with something going wrong.
The risk register is where you start. You and your team need to peer into the future and imagine what could go wrong (or right) with your project. Then evaluate the identified risk. Next, assign responsibility of monitoring and preparing for the event, to a specific team member.
It is up to you to make sure your people are working the register. Uncertainty/risks need to be re-visited periodically. Once is never enough. As time passes, we will know more. Some risks will fade away and others will appear, and still others will change in impact. Stay on top of your project uncertainties.
Most schedule risk arises from the imprecision of estimate unit rates. This imprecision reflects the effect of location, skill levels, craft availability, complexity, or whatever has on the unit rate. It takes time to understand the actual impact of these factors and adjust the unit rate. Do not be concerned with productivity until you achieve about fifteen percent of the specific task (or group of tasks that use the same unit rate) completed. Before that, you are measuring mobilization, not productivity.

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